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MLB News
MLB: Boston guns for season sweep of Angels
2010-08-19
The Angels are nearly a .500 team heading into Thursday’s game versus the Red Sox, but if not for the woeful season series versus Boston, they would be much better, perhaps even still in the playoff hunt. Los Angeles has lost all nine games to Boston in 2010, and a win by the Red Sox tonight would complete an unusual season sweep. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com believe it will happen, with the Red Sox playing as -145 favorites behind Josh Beckett.
There may be enough reasons to suspect the season sweep won’t happen though. First off, Boston (69-52) hasn't won more than three straight games since June. Secondly, Beckett has been hit hard in both of his last two starts, yielding 13 runs in 9-2/3 innings against Texas and the Yankees. Thirdly, there are several strong StatFox Systems and/or Trends favoring the Angels in tonight’s matchup.
The system reads as follows and focuses on Beckett’s struggles:
• Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (LA ANGELS) - with a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season (AL). (35-15 since 1997.) (70%, +31.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The Angels will turn to Ervin Santana (12-8, 3.99 ERA) to cool off the Boston bats. The right-hander pitched well at Fenway on May 4, limiting the Red Sox to one run over seven innings, but wound up without a decision in a 5-1 loss. He is 1-2 with a 4.61 ERA in seven starts versus Boston. Santana has won four of his last five starts overall, including a 7-2 home victory Saturday over Toronto in which he allowed one run, three hits and four walks in seven innings. He also boasts a strong performance record against the league’s best recently:
• SANTANA is 15-5 (+10.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was SANTANA 5.0, OPPONENT 3.0 - (Rating = 1*)
Besides the current opponent, the other good news for the Red Sox is that they got 2008 AL MVP Dustin Pedroia back from a broken left foot Tuesday. They have been dealing with injury problems all season long and found out on Wednesday that Mike Cameron will have season-ending surgery to repair a torn abdominal muscle. Fellow outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury also may not play again this year after re-aggravating a broken rib in his back last week.
The Red Sox won 7-5 on Wednesday night, improving to 9-0 in the season series with Los Angeles. Boston has averaged 7.3 runs while batting .327 in those games.
The Angels, meanwhile, will now try to avoid their fifth losing streak this season of at least four games. Two of the previous four skids concluded with sweeps at the hands of Boston.
The total for Thursday’s game is set at 9.5, and that wagering option also shows a unique trend relating to Boston’s dominance in the series:
• SCIOSCIA is 14-4 OVER (+9.5 Units) in road games revenging 6 or more straight losses vs opponent in last 2 years as the manager of LA ANGELS. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.5, OPPONENT 6.2 - (Rating = 1*)
Look for the first pitch from Boston at 7:10 PM ET.
MLB: Baseball bettors jumping on Giants
2010-05-12
Whether it’s at home or on the road, the San Diego Padres have gotten the best of the San Francisco Giants this season. The first-place Padres look for a fifth straight win over the Giants on Wednesday night. After sweeping a three-game set from the Giants at home April 19-21, San Diego (20-12, +9.4 units) won 3-2 on Tuesday at San Francisco in the series opener between the NL West frontrunners. For tonight’s game, Sportsbook.com shows the Giants as -180 favorites, after opening the line at -145.
Three of the Padres’ four wins over San Francisco (18-13, +3.8) have been decided by one run, moving them to 14-6 in night games.
David Eckstein had a two-run single and four relievers held the Giants scoreless over 4 1/3 innings as San Diego improved to 3-1 on a six-game road trip.“We’ve been feeling good,” said Heath Bell, who recorded his ninth save to secure San Diego’s third straight win at San Francisco.
San Diego has allowed six runs against the Giants this season, including two by a bullpen that’s among the best in the majors with a 2.58 ERA. The Padres are 16-6 with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.200 the last 10 games this season.
That solid pitching has enabled the Padres to provide just enough offense to keep beating the Giants. San Diego has scored 12 runs and hit .235 against the Giants this season. The Padres were the recipient of 12 San Francisco walks but stranded 15 runners Tuesday. “We want to get them in,” San Diego manager Bud Black said.
Eckstein, however, is 7 for 13 in his last four games and batting .318 with six RBIs in his last six against the Giants.
The Padres scored all their runs Tuesday against Barry Zito, who allowed seven walks. They could face a stiffer challenge with Matt Cain (2-1, 2.79 ERA, 1.009 WHIP) on the mound.
After giving up seven runs in his first two starts, Cain has yielded six in his last four and two with five hits in 15 innings to win his last two outings.
Coming off an eight-inning, one-hit effort against Colorado on May 1, Cain took a no-hitter into the sixth before allowing two runs and four hits in seven innings of a 6-3 win at Florida on Thursday. “What a job he did,” manager Bruce Bochy told the Giants’ official website. The right-hander and his teammates are 11-3 when he pitches off a loss.
Cain is 4-6 with a 2.91 ERA in 19 starts versus the Padres. He allowed two runs in six innings of a 3-2, 10-inning loss at San Diego on April 19.
San Diego’s Clayton Richard (1-2, 3.34, 1.543), who gave up one run in 6 1/3 innings in that game against Cain and the Giants last month, takes the ball in this contest. The left-hander, whose 0-1 with a 6.10 ERA in two starts against San Francisco, gave up three runs and five walks in five innings of a 6-5, 12-inning loss to Colorado last Wednesday.
“It was not having command of my fastball. And when I don’t have that, it’s going to be a rough slide,” Richard told the Padres’ official website. Richard is an after dark hurler with San Diego 15-6 when he takes the mound with the lights on.
Aubrey Huff is 4 for 7 against Richard and had two hits with an RBI on Tuesday for the Giants, who’ve lost three of four. Huff is batting .417 with nine RBIs in his last 10 games.
Sportsbook.com has seen almost all one-sided action, as the Giants went from -145 favorites to -180 on the money line with total Un7.5. San Fran is 24-12 vs. NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better and 17-5 OVER against clubs in their league allowing 3.8 or less runs a game on the season. When the total falls into that range, Richard is 12-5 when the number is 7 to 8.5. (Padres Record)
This battle for the top spot in the NL West has 10:15 Eastern start and is available in both local markets as well as MLB.TV and San Diego is 24-13 OVER as a road underdog of +150 or more.
The StatFox Power Line shows San Francisco -151
MLB: Tampa Bay not a good bet
2009-09-01
As September begins, the defending American League champions are backed into a corner. The Rays earned a road split with Detroit yesterday with 11-7 win, yet still trail Boston by five games for the wild card, with Texas a game ahead of them. This is not to say Tampa Bay isn’t capable of making a run over their next 32 games, since they still have six important encounters with the Red Sox over the next 13 days. If it were only that easy. In Tuesday’s series opener, it is the Red Sox that are heavy -155 favorites. Players at Sportsbook are about evenly split on their loyalties. Check the BETTING TRENDS page for the latest breakdown.
This is crunch time and Rays know it, opening up a three-game series with the Red Sox. “I don’t know if it gets any bigger,” Evan Longoria said of the upcoming series. “…. It should be fun.” Even when Tampa Bay was the American League doormat they gave Boston trouble and it has continued into this season. The Rays have won eight of 12 against Boston and are 18-10 at Tropicana Field versus the BoSox.
Many wondered how the Tampa Bay front office could have moved the team’s all-time wins leader is Scott Kazmir, while still in the thick of chasing post-season berth. Tampa Bay has had an unusual situation and has tricky economic picture to consider.
After years of being one of the sickest and poorly run franchises in baseball, Tampa Rays invested in farm system. They have assembled some of the best young talent in the game; unfortunately, baseball isn’t just played on the field.
Last year’s World Series run has not led to a huge bump in attendance, ranking 22nd at 24,168 per game, which is behind Baltimore, San Diego and Arizona, whose seasons were over long ago. In fact they draw 4,000 more per game on the road than at home. The Rays lack a substantial season ticket base, strong corporate presence and potential for substantial ballpark revenues. The end result is Tampa Bay has to win to try and draw while always keeping an eye on the money matters.
With Kazmir gone, Andy Sonnanstine (6-7, 6.61 ERA) has been recalled from Triple-A. The right-hander gets the call since he is 2-0 with 0.96 ERA in last three starts against Boston. Sportsbook.com oddsmakers are not impressed with Sonnanstine or the fact the Rays are 57-23 at home playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons. They have made the Red Sox -155 money line road favorites, with the total Un9.
Jon Lester (10-7, 3.60) will be charge of stopping Joe Maddon’s club. The Red Sox are 14-3 in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher like Sonnanstine, whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 and is 12-2 with a day off. The rub is Lester is 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA in three starts in 2009 vs. the former Devil Rays, with Boston losing all of them. While it is true the Red Sox are 11-0 after seven or more consecutive home games this season, you can’t overlook the fact they are 1-11 when playing against a team with a win percentage between 54 to 62 percent in the second half of this year.
Longoria and teammates are 15-3 UNDER as a home underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons, while Boston is 14-3 UNDER in road games vs. good power teams, averaging 1.25 or more home runs a game in the second half of the season.
While manager Terry Francona laments about trip to -The Trop-, “Those cowbells stay with you for about a week.” at least his club is still in better position and doesn’t have the Rays upcoming schedule.
Tampa Bay plays host to Boston and division leading Detroit this week before heading on the road next for trips the Yankees and Boston.
First pitch tonight is set for 7:08 Eastern on NESN and Sun networks.
StatFox Power Line – Boston -154
MLB: Big-time run line system backs Giants in St. Louis
2009-07-01
Most baseball bettors use the K.I.S.S method when it comes to filling out their wagering tickets each day. They Keep It Simple by just playing sides and the occasional total. More savvy players mix it up though, throwing in some 5 inning bets or run line wagers when it makes sense. Perhaps this is because most bettors don’t have access to powerful information, like systems, to take advantage of those latter opportunities. Well, for Tuesday, a big-time Super Situation from FoxSheets backs San Francisco as a +1-1/2 run dog in St. Louis. Take a look.
The Giants shut out the Cardinals on Monday night behind Tim Lincecum. The final tally was a decisive 10-0 count, with San Francisco beating St. Louis 12-2 in the hit column as well. Now, because of that results, with the ageless Randy Johnson squaring off against Chris Carpenter, the Giants actually make for a strong underdog play on the run line at about +1-1/2 -125. Here is why, according to FoxSheets:
Play Against - Home favorites against a 1.5 run line (Money Line =-190 to +175) (ST LOUIS) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games (78-21 since 1997.) (78.8%, +49.9 units. Rating=4*)
In essence, the system is indicating that too much of this line is reliant on another dominant performance by Carpenter. That is apparently a dangerous presumption to make after San Francisco broke out last night. What’s most interesting about that game is that the Giants are among baseball's least productive offensive clubs, a fact the Cardinals are having a hard time believing after they were hit hard in the series opener.
Of course, repeating the outbreak at the plate won't be nearly as easy. The Cardinals will have ace Carpenter on the mound. He is 5-2 with a stellar 1.78 ERA and 0.700 WHIP. He is also 3-0 against San Francisco in his career with an ERA of 3.00, including a win on May 30th on the road when he allowed just two runs in six innings.
San Francisco (41-34) came into St. Louis this week with the NL wild card lead, but a potent lineup hasn't been what's made it one of baseball's most surprising teams. Instead, it's been the major league-best 3.61 staff ERA that's propelled the Giants despite a less-than-stellar offense that scores just 4.1 runs per game.
They averaged 6.5 runs in their last two contests in Milwaukee over the weekend, though, and that offensive spark carried over on Monday. Edgar Renteria and Travis Ishikawa each drove in three runs to support reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum's two-hitter.
Johnson (7-5, 4.68), the 45-year-old left-hander, has done a particularly impressive job lately. He's 4-1 with a 2.57 ERA in his last seven starts, and gave up one run and six hits over seven innings Wednesday in a 6-3 win at Oakland.
Johnson's two starts against St. Louis last season didn't go well. He went 0-1 with a 9.31 ERA, yielding five homers in 9 2-3 innings.
In other key Run Line Betting information available from FoxSheets on this game:
* SAN FRANCISCO is 12-2 against the run line (+10.1 Units) in road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.4, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 1*)
However, there is one strong bit of info that would seem to conflict our top system a bit, focusing on the aspect of revenge. It is a team trend and reads as follows:
* ST LOUIS is 57-28 against the run line (+33.2 Units) revenging a shutout loss to opponent since 1997. The average score was ST LOUIS 5.1, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*)
What wins out, system or trend? Find out tonight when the Cardinals host the Giants from baseball-friendly Busch Stadium at 8:15 PM ET.
MLB: Oswalt tries to continue dominance over Reds (7:10 PM ET, MLB TV)
2009-04-27
Though Roy Oswalt has yet to win a game this season, there is no better team for him and Houston to face at this moment than Cincinnati. To say Oswalt has had success against the Reds is like saying the Cleveland Cavaliers had a pretty good home record this season.
Oswalt (0-2, 4.68 ERA, 1.440 WHIP) is 23-1 over 29 career games, including 27 starts. He has a 2.39 career ERA versus the Reds. He last faced them on April 17, taking a no-decision after throwing six shutout innings. Overall, Houston (7-12, -5.1 Units) has won 22 of his 27 times he has taken the ball to begin a game against Cincinnati (10-8, +3.4) and is 11-1 in 16 road starts.
The Astros have not been playing good baseball, losing six of last 10, including dropping three of four against the Reds earlier this month. Houston despite a veteran lineup is not hitting, tied for last in baseball in runs scored at 3.5 per game. The Astros are 19-6 against the money line revenging two straight home losses vs opponent over the last three seasons.
Cincinnati has been a little more consistent and avoided being swept at home against Atlanta yesterday with 8-2 triumph. The Reds offense has been nominally better at 3.9 runs scored per game, though its batting average is quite a bit lower than Houston's (.233 vs .248). What has helped Cincinnati is better starting pitching, as in half their games the Reds have held opposition to three or less runs. The Cincy bullpen ERA is nothing special at 4.30, however when it has counted most, Francisco Cordero has led bullpen that is six for six in save opportunities.
The Reds are 31-50 (-26.8 Units) against the money line in home games after a win by six runs or more and give the ball to Johnny Cueto (1-1, 2.55, 1.188), who was brilliant in last outing. The 23-year old pitched seven scoreless innings against Chicago in 3-0 whitewashing for the win. Cueto allowed just four singles and didn't walk a batter, following instructions from pitching coach to stop nibbling and be aggressive.
Cueto has not enjoyed much success against Houston with 0-3 record and 6.75 ERA in five starts. He has been a victim and another reason why the Reds have lost 14 of 15 at home to Houston. Sportsbook.com has the Reds as -114 money line favorites with total Un8.5. If the line holds, this will mark the first time Oswalt has been underdog to Cincinnati, with the Astros having won 12 of his last 17 starts. Houston is 10-2 UNDER as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season.
The Reds have not excelled as favorites at -150 or less, with 2-5 mark and are 7-2 UNDER if Cueto starts after scoring five or more runs.
The Central Division action starts at 7:10 Eastern in both local markets and on MLB.TV, with Oswalt and 'Stros 2-6 on the road against teams with winning records.
StatFox Power Line - Houston -109
MLB: Angels Having a Devil of a Time in Tampa
2008-08-20
For the last several months, the Los Angeles Angels have either been the best team in the American League or the best team in baseball. As of last evening, they have lost both positions and if they expect to reclaim top spot, the Angels will have to do something they have been unable to do all season, win at Tampa Bay.
Having lost the first two games of the series already at Tropicana Field, the Angels are 0-5 at the Rays home park and have lost just their eighth series of the year. Having dropped two of three in Cleveland in previous series, this is the first time since early June L.A. has lost back-to-back series and they have only been swept one other time all season, in Tampa Bay, May 9-11.
Though the Angels are in no danger of giving away their AL West lead, they would certainly like to post at least one victory in Tampa, as the way things are setting up, they might have to make this trip again in October when the pressure will really to be turned up.
After the Rays lost outfielder Carl Crawford and rookie of the year candidate Evan Longoria, the assumption was manager Joe Maddon’s club would finally come back to reality. Instead, Tampa Bay has swum away from all competitors, having won 16 of last 20 games and is 22-9 since the All-Star break, the best in the big leagues. The Halos may have the best road record in baseball at 39-25 (+15.4 units), however they have been no match for the Rays who have the highest marks for home teams at 47-17 (+25.1) and are the best wager in the game at +24.1 units.
Jered Weaver (10-9, 4.47, 1.312 WHIP) is given the assignment of derailing the Rays, as Los Angeles will be underdog for first time in the series. Sportsbook.com has the Angels as +110 money line dogs with total at 8.5. Possibly this role will help the Halos, who are 19-10 (+13.7 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher and 25-10 (+17.5 Units) on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. Weaver is 2-0 lifetime versus Tampa Bay with sterling 1.93 ERA.
These Rays have given L.A. a devil of a time and are more like sharks than former team nickname. Tampa Bay has destroyed clubs with solid pitching to the tune of 30-12, in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs a game. For a team that has never had prosperity and has never been a consistent favorite, Tampa Bay has taken to this role like a duck to water, with 27-9 record as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season. Matt Garza (10-7, 3.63, 1.211) will try to extend the Angels misery and is 6-2 at the Trop in 2008.
The total has real possibilities tonight, with Garza 13-3 UNDER at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last three seasons (Team's Record) and Weaver and L.A. 20-7 UNDER after a loss. Something will have to given on the ESPN2 contest which starts at 7:10 Eastern, as the Tampa Bay is 10-1 in home games after two straight wins by two runs or less this season and Los Angeles is 31-14 after two or more consecutive losses over the last two campaigns.
StatFox Power Line – Tampa Bay -126
Will Four Aces be enough to win in MLB action?
2008-07-08
During the course of a long 162-game season, situations arise where some of the best pitchers in baseball all end up throwing on the same night for their respective clubs. Tonight is one of those nights, with four teams, three in the National League and one in the American League, all having their top pitcher taking the ball, in search of a win.
St. Louis at Philadelphia
The Phillies will turn to ace Cole Hamels (9-5, 3.22, 1.018 WHIP) to end three-game losing skid at home, with the Cardinals visiting. Hamels was probably mildly disappointed not to be named to the All-Star two years in a row, yet realizes his importance in leading Philadelphia out of its dry spell. Hamels was one out away from a complete game his last time out, when pulled after throwing 125 pitches at Atlanta. Hamels and the Phillies are 18-4 against the money line against NL Central opponents, including 4-0 versus St. Louis over the last three seasons. Sportsbook.com has instituted them as -210 home favorites, with total Un9. The Cardinals are one of the rare birds in baseball to have a winning road record at 24-19 (+9.8 units) and are 9-3 vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start this season.
Arizona at Washington
It’s been a rough go for Arizona, now tied for first place in the NL West with the L.A. Dodgers at 44-45, making a trip back east before the All-Star break. The Diamondbacks will look to square up record with ace Brandon Webb (12-4, 3.59, 1.170 WHIP) climbing the hill for Arizona. Even Webb has been caught up in the maelstrom of mediocrity for the D-Backs, giving up three or more runs in four of his last five starts. His ERA has taken a steady climb, after one point of having the best in the senior circuit. Webb the Snakes have excelled against weak hitting teams, posting a 15-2 record vs. NL clubs scoring 3.8 or less runs a game on the season like Washington. The Nationals have been dangerous this time of year, with a 20-10 mark in home games in July games over the last three seasons. Though Arizona is solid -155 visiting favorite, they are 5-13 against the money line in road games after a win this season.
San Francisco at N.Y. Mets
The Mets offense might finally be coming around, having pounded out 10 or more hits in seven of last nine games, they’ll face a stern test to their proficiency at Shea Stadium against one of the game’s new bright stars in SI cover boy Tim Lincecum (10-1, 2.49, 1.245 WHIP). At 5’11 and 170 pounds (maybe), Lincecum blows away hitters with old-school, over-the-top delivery, throwing in the upper 90’s, maximizing his abilities to generate speed and power. He’s averaging better than strikeout per inning (122 K’s vs 115.1 innings), while allowing just five long balls. He’s not lost since April 29 and “the Freak” and the Giants are 6-3 when he starts in traveling grays. Lincecum’s affect is shown on oddsmakers, who only have the Mets as -115 home favorites, despite having a much better club. New York is 21-8 at Shea when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two years; however Lincecum and San Fran are 11-3 in next outing off a loss.
Tampa Bay at N.Y. Yankees
Over in the Bronx, another New York squad will take a gander at the familiar tosses of Tampa Bay’s ace, Scott Kazmir (7-3, 2.62, 1.125 WHIP). The left-handed Kazmir, after toiling with calamitous clubs in Tampa, is now with the best team in baseball and is part of the reason the Rays are good to watch, not the only reason. Kazmir has been fighting location issues in last three starts, accounting for 5.74 ERA, but has performed well against teams like the Yankees with 9-2 mark when playing against a marginal winning team, in the 51 to 54 percent range. This is a big series for New York, trailing Tampa Bay by 8.5 games. This has to be culture shock for the Yanks who are more familiar with Rays team that is 3-24 in road games in July games since 2006. The Yankees will turn to Andy Pettitte as the old veteran, who is 23-5 vs. teams, whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Yankees Record) Tampa Bay is a +105 road underdog with total at 8.5 and is 27-12 when the total is 7 to 8.5 in 2008.
Stay up with all the baseball betting action at Sportsbook.com. Always wise to check the Betting Trends page along with having working knowledge of all the situations on the Teams Stats pages.