MLB: Colorado Under-performing, watch the Total
After having made it all the way to the World Series, it is easy to forget certain truths about the Colorado Rockies from a season ago.
After having made it all the way to the World Series, it is easy to forget certain truths about the Colorado Rockies from a season ago. Unfortunately, some of those truths are coming back to the surface in 2008, as the Rockies look about as good as the pessimistic pre-2007 forecasts said they would.
Before Colorado defeated San Diego, in one game playoff to make the postseason, they had won 13 of 14 games, including 11 in a row just to get to that position. This means the morning of Sept. 16, 2007, the Rockies were real ordinary club at 77-74, showing no signs of what was about to occur.
For Colorado, the stars all aligned, the starting pitching was superb, the bullpen was un-hittable and the bats were cracking. Fast forward to 2008 and Rockies are one of baseball's biggest disappointments at 15-24 and poorest wagers at -9.2 units. Most figured the pitchers would come back to earth, which they have. What wasn't apparent was the Rockies bats would be colder than January morning at Pike's Peak. Colorado has a team batting average of .258, which is 19th in the majors. For this group of hitters, this is below average. Couple this with the fact their run production is even worse, at 4.3 runs per game, ranking a scrawny 25th.
Tonight, they will face one of their tormentors again this season, Arizona (24-15, +7.2 units). After being swept by Colorado in the NLCS, the Diamondbacks keep striking the Rockies with a vengeance, winning six of seven. The D-Backs will start Micah Owings, who is 4-1, but has been dusted up in recent starts, which has seen his ERA jump to 4.53.
Sportsbook.com's line makers have established Arizona as -148 favorites and more importantly, set the Total at 10. Why is this important, here's why.
When the Total is 10 or higher, with an average hitting team like Colorado (AVG = .255 to .269), facing an average starting pitcher like Owings (ERA=4.20 to 5.20-NL) in May, Play the UNDER.
This impeccable system is 18-2 the last five seasons, including a pair of winners in 2008. Why it works is an average pitcher can have a better than average game against a run of the mill hitting club. The May aspect has more to do with weather, which won't be an issue in downtown Phoenix.
What further enhances this outstanding system is Colorado is scoring only 3.7 RPG on the road, and both bullpens have been exceptional in home/road situations. The D-Backs pen ERA is 3.31 at Chase Field, while the Rockies is even better at 2.21 away from Coors Field.
To add even more confidence to the play, home plate umpire Adrian Johnson has seen a total of 8.1 runs scored when he is behind the dish. The UNDER has bee the correct play 66.6 percent of his nine games calling balls and strikes.
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